Before We React to the Market,We Need to Understand It
By Priscila Rodrigues, president of ABVCAP – Brazilian Private Equity and Venture Capital Association
In a market shaped by transition rather than interruption, understanding this shift has become the foundation for decision-making, redefining how capital is deployed and how value is built.
There are countless moments in my life when I find myself returning to a sentence by Marie Curie that, although rooted in science, carries a clarity that extends far beyond it. “Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood.” I have been thinking about it often lately, as my son begins to enter adolescence, a phase that anyone who has lived through it recognises for its intensity, its constant shifts, and the way familiar dynamics begin to change in front of you, requiring less instinct to react and a much deeper effort to truly grasp what is unfolding.
There is a natural tendency to interpret change too quickly, to search for answers before fully engaging with what is still taking shape, to rely on past references when the context itself no longer follows the same logic. It is precisely in that gap that decisions begin to lose quality, because reacting may create a sense of control, yet it rarely builds consistent direction, whether inside a home, facing a child who is forming his own way of being in the world, or within a broader environment such as the market, which moves through its own cycles of transformation.
The current moment in the private capital industry reflects much of this dynamic, not because capital has stopped flowing, but because the way it moves has changed, shifting the focus from speed to consistency, from volume to quality, and requiring a deeper reading of decisions, where time regains relevance, analysis takes its place, and alignment between investors and companies becomes central to value creation.
The numbers give shape to this transition without resorting to simplified interpretations. Throughout 2025, private equity recorded 89 transactions totalling approximately BRL 50.1 billion, while venture capital registered 96 deals, representing around BRL 6.5 billion in investments. These figures differ from the peaks seen in 2020 and 2021, yet still reflect an active market capable of sustaining investments and identifying opportunities, now under more clearly defined criteria and a more precise assessment of risk and return.
This adjustment forms part of a broader evolution within the Brazilian ecosystem, which has advanced in building more predictable regulatory structures, strengthening supervision mechanisms, and increasing the sophistication of investment firms. These firms now operate with greater specialisation, stronger teams, and a deeper analytical capacity across complex sectors, creating an environment where decision-making relies less on cycles of enthusiasm and more on consistent fundamentals.
At the same time, Brazil continues to offer a structural foundation that is difficult to overlook, combining scale, a large and connected population, and key sectors that sustain demand, such as services, which account for roughly 70 percent of GDP, and agribusiness, responsible for around 24 percent of economic activity and a significant share of exports. This reinforces the existence of multiple avenues for growth for companies that can execute effectively in this context.
This environment is also reflected in the quality of the companies that emerge from it, with the country now home to 24 unicorns and examples of businesses that have managed not only to grow, but to position themselves competitively on a global scale, demonstrating that capital, when combined with governance, strategy, and execution, remains a powerful driver of transformation, even as its pace and form continue to evolve.
The central point, in the end, lies in how we interpret this slowdown rather than in the slowdown itself, because cycles that demand deeper analysis call for a shift into a phase where selection intensifies, discipline takes on a defining role, and the ability to read context becomes just as important as the ability to act. This brings us back, almost naturally, to Marie Curie’s insight, reminding us that understanding does not eliminate complexity, but allows us to engage with it with greater precision and, above all, to make decisions that hold up over time.
Whether facing the transformation of a child growing up or the structural changes of a market in motion, there is something that connects both contexts and remains constant in uncertain environments, the need to understand before reacting, because it is from that space that the choices emerge that truly build something worth sustaining.
Connect with the author
Priscila Rodrigues has been the President of ABVCAP since June 2023 and has served as Head of Private Markets Solutions at XP Asset since February 2025. She has been working in the alternative investments industry for 25 years. She holds a degree in Business Administration from Fundação Getulio Vargas and an MBA with specialization in Private Equity and Real Estate from Columbia Business School.
LinkedIn: Priscila Rodrigues | LinkedIn
Last updated in Aug 2026.